The EUR/USD currency pair is gaining positive traction early in the week, advancing toward the 1.1370 mark in Monday’s European trading session, registering a 0.25% gain on the day. The rally in the pair is primarily attributed to the weakness of the US Dollar (USD), which remains under pressure due to escalating trade tensions and fresh concerns triggered by the US President’s proposal to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum. 

These developments have favored the Euro (EUR), pushing the pair higher and reinforcing a bullish market sentiment. This subject is broken down thoroughly by TelaraX brokers in this featured article.

Bullish Technical Setup Remains in Focus

From a technical analysis perspective, the daily chart illustrates a sustained bullish trend, with the EUR/USD price action staying well above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This key dynamic support line reinforces the underlying strength of the pair and signals buyers’ control in the current market structure.

In addition, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 57.25, maintaining a position above the neutral 50 level, which confirms bullish momentum. The RSI trendline shows no signs of divergence or exhaustion, indicating the potential for further upside in the near term.

Resistance Levels to Watch

The first upside barrier emerges at 1.1445, aligning with the upper limit of the Bollinger Band, making it a critical resistance level in the short term. A successful breach above this threshold may encourage further buying interest, paving the way toward the next target at 1.1574, which marks the April 21 high. 

Beyond that, a move toward the psychologically significant level at 1.1600 could be anticipated, especially if bullish momentum continues and the USD remains subdued.

These resistance zones will be critical in determining whether the EUR/USD can extend its recent recovery or if sellers will step in to cap the upside potential.

Immediate Support Levels in Play

On the flip side, initial support is identified at 1.1283, corresponding to the low recorded on May 28. This level is expected to offer moderate buying interest in case of a pullback. A breakdown below this support could trigger further bearish correction, exposing the next downside target at 1.1110, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Bollinger Band.

Further downside risk could emerge if the price slides toward 1.1000, a critical round-figure level that aligns with the 100-day EMA, potentially providing a strong support zone. A decisive break below this region may signal a trend reversal, shifting the focus from the current bullish momentum to a more cautious or even bearish outlook.

Broader Market Sentiment & Macro Influences

From a macroeconomic perspective, renewed trade war fears are pressuring the US Dollar. The US President’s plan to increase tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports has reignited concerns of a protectionist policy stance, which tends to weigh on the USD by increasing market uncertainty and impacting investor sentiment.

Moreover, the Eurozone’s economic data has recently shown signs of stability, further bolstering the Euro’s attractiveness. Improved manufacturing PMIs, a slightly hawkish tilt from the European Central Bank (ECB), and resilient inflation readings all contribute to the supportive backdrop for the single currency.

However, upcoming data such as US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and ECB forward guidance could alter the current directional bias. Until then, the EUR/USD remains subject to a risk-on environment that favors the Euro, especially amid declining US Treasury yields and dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve.

Moving Averages and Trend Indicators

Aside from the 100-day EMA, traders are closely watching other key moving averages:

• The 50-day EMA, which recently crossed above the 200-day EMA (a bullish golden cross pattern), strengthens the medium-term upside structure.
• The 20-day EMA is also sloping upward, suggesting short-term buyers are actively participating in the current uptrend.

Furthermore, the MACD histogram is in positive territory, and the signal line crossover indicates a potential continuation of the bullish cycle. These combined technical indicators validate the upward momentum and reduce the likelihood of sharp corrections in the immediate term, unless triggered by unexpected macroeconomic shocks.

Price Action Outlook: Cautious Optimism Toward 1.1450 and Beyond

In summary, the EUR/USD price forecast favors further gains as long as the pair maintains strength above the 1.1283 support zone and the broader technical structure holds. The bullish bias remains intact, supported by both momentum indicators and macro-driven USD weakness.

The next upside target is positioned at 1.1445, which may serve as a technical litmus test for short-term buyers. A break above this could unlock further bullish potential toward 1.1574 and 1.1600.

Nonetheless, traders are advised to monitor the economic calendar, especially upcoming US labor market data, as well as any potential geopolitical surprises, which could swiftly alter the current trajectory.