The BTC/USD pair faced selling pressure on Wednesday morning, extending its consolidation phase. Bitcoin hovered near $112,000, well below its year-to-date peak of $124,250.
Traders and analysts are closely monitoring developments in macroeconomic data, monetary policy expectations, and market technicals to assess whether Bitcoin is on the verge of a bearish breakout. In this article, Arbitics brokers carefully dissect the key aspects of the topic.
Bitcoin Price Waits for US Inflation Data
The latest movements in BTC/USD have been influenced by economic indicators coming from the United States. The pair retreated sharply after the release of the US jobs report, which revealed a substantial downward revision in payrolls. Specifically, the report showed that 911,000 jobs were revised lower, marking the biggest correction in years.
Before this revision, non-farm payrolls (NFP) data suggested that the economy had added 1.8 million jobs in the year through March, averaging 149,000 per month. After adjustments, the employment picture appeared much weaker, adding only about half of the originally reported figures.
The weakness continued with Friday’s NFP report, which showed the economy created only 22,000 jobs in August, compared to 73,000 in July. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since the pandemic era.
For Bitcoin, weaker US economic data raises questions about Federal Reserve policy, interest rate expectations, and overall market liquidity. Investors are now awaiting the release of US inflation data.
Economists forecast that both the producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) numbers will show continued upward pressure, reflecting the impact of the U.S. tariffs and persistent supply-side constraints.
Market Developments Beyond Macroeconomic Data
Bitcoin’s consolidation has also coincided with significant announcements in the crypto derivatives market. Cboe Global Markets, a major financial services firm, confirmed plans to launch continuous futures contracts for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Unlike standard futures, these contracts will carry ten-year expirations, effectively minimizing the need for traders to roll over contracts.
This innovation highlights the ongoing institutional demand for digital assets. Supporting this narrative, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see impressive inflows. Recent data shows that over $54 billion has flowed into these ETFs, pushing their total assets under management (AUM) to $145 billion.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the BTC/USD daily chart underscores the weakening momentum. Bitcoin has retreated from its 2024 high of $124,250 to around $112,000, a decline of more than 9% in just a few sessions.
One of the most significant chart patterns forming is the double-top reversal pattern, with a neckline at $123,230. Breaking below this level has opened the door to further weakness. Currently, Bitcoin is also shaping a bearish flag pattern, a common continuation structure that suggests downside potential following a sharp decline.
Moreover, the pair is trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reinforcing the bearish momentum. If selling pressure persists, traders should watch the following levels:
- Immediate support: $107,330 (last month’s low)
- Secondary target: $105,000 (psychological and technical support)
Failure to hold these levels could accelerate selling toward even deeper retracement zones. On the other hand, a decisive move back above the EMA and sustained buying momentum above $118,000 would be required to invalidate the bearish setup.
Implications for Traders and Investors
For forex traders and crypto investors, the BTC/USD pair currently represents a classic case of macro-driven sentiment colliding with technical chart patterns. The bearish bias is reinforced by:
- Weak US jobs data: highlighting slowing momentum in the world’s largest economy.
- Rising inflation concerns: potentially keeping the Federal Reserve cautious.
- Bearish technical signals: including the double-top and bearish flag formations.
- Institutional activity: supportive in the long-term, but insufficient to counter immediate selling pressure.
This mix suggests that while the long-term outlook for Bitcoin adoption remains strong, the short-term trajectory could favor downside movement in the BTC/USD exchange rate.
Conclusion
The BTC/USD pair is at a critical juncture. With the price hovering near $112,000, Bitcoin sits at the edge of a bearish breakout fueled by disappointing US jobs data, anticipated inflation figures, and weakening technical signals.
While the growing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs and the introduction of new futures products underscore institutional confidence, near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
If the bearish flag pattern confirms, the next levels to watch will be $107,330 and $105,000, with further declines possible if macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate. On the flip side, a surprise rebound driven by softer inflation or renewed buying momentum could help Bitcoin reclaim higher levels.
For now, traders should remain cautious, closely monitor key economic releases, and pay attention to critical support and resistance levels as Bitcoin navigates this pivotal phase.
