Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a period of consolidation, trading near $103,500 on Wednesday after facing persistent resistance at the $105,000 level. This resistance zone has proven challenging, with multiple rejections over four consecutive days, signaling short-term uncertainty even as the broader market structure remains constructive.
The near-term direction may hinge on geopolitical developments, particularly the Ukraine-Russia peace talks taking place this week in Istanbul. The team of brokers at Raliplen dissects the topic with precision in their detailed analysis.
Ukraine-Russia High-Level Talks Could Boost Risky Assets
The return of face-to-face negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, announced in a Washington Post report on Wednesday, could serve as a bullish macro catalyst for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Scheduled for Thursday in Istanbul, the meeting marks the first high-level diplomatic encounter since 2022.
The Russian President proposed the talks amid growing pressure from the West to implement a 30-day ceasefire, aimed at de-escalating tensions and paving the way for longer-term peace efforts. Key attendees reportedly include U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and diplomatic advisors Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg, suggesting renewed international engagement in the peace process.
The Ukrainian President responded by calling for an elevated discussion, inviting the Russian President to engage at the presidential level. While such a direct summit remains uncertain, any constructive outcome from the Istanbul talks could have significant market implications. A credible pathway toward de-escalation would likely boost investor confidence, spark risk-on sentiment, and potentially propel Bitcoin and other risk assets higher.
Bitcoin Recovers on U.S.–Saudi Trade Deal and Softer CPI
BTC’s resilience earlier this week came on the back of macro tailwinds, particularly the U.S.–Saudi trade pact signed on Tuesday. The $600 billion deal included tariff reductions and injected renewed optimism into global financial markets. Analysts at QCP Capital described this as a “risk-on trigger”, boosting demand for digital assets.
Simultaneously, U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) data came in below expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve may soon consider rate cuts. Despite this dovish print, the Fed maintains a cautious stance given inflationary risks tied to tariff fluctuations and employment data.
Market Structure Remains Healthy: BTC Rally Intact
Despite recent sideways action, analysts argue the Bitcoin rally remains fundamentally intact. According to a report from K33 Research, the perpetual funding rates on Binance BTCUSDT 7-day avg have turned slightly positive, a technical sign of renewed demand and bullish sentiment.
These positive funding rates reflect a shift in market psychology, reminiscent of past bullish phases, particularly the October 2023–2024 uptrend. More notably, excessive leverage remains in check, which strengthens the case for a more sustainable rally.
For instance, the 2x leveraged long BTC ETF (BITX) currently holds 51,305 BTC in net exposure, down from a peak of 76,755 BTC on December 17. This 25,450 BTC reduction indicates trader caution and a lack of speculative froth typically seen in overheated rallies. Inflows to leveraged products remain subdued, suggesting that the current market is less driven by euphoria and more by strategic positioning.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: $105,000 Resistance Remains Key
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s immediate outlook will likely depend on whether bulls can overcome the $105,000 resistance level. The asset declined 2% on Monday after failing to break above this critical area. While BTC briefly reclaimed $104,000 on Tuesday, it has since retraced slightly to $103,600 by mid-Wednesday.
If bullish momentum continues to fade, BTC could pull back toward the psychological support at $100,000. This level has acted as a magnet for demand in the past and would likely serve as a key test of support in the event of a broader sell-off.
From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is now at 69, just below the overbought threshold of 70. The RSI is also sloping downward, which is a bearish signal. A break below the neutral 50 level would confirm weakening momentum and may trigger a broader correction in price.
Conclusion: All Eyes on Geopolitical and Macro Triggers
In summary, while Bitcoin is consolidating just below a major technical resistance, its underlying market structure remains constructive. The transition of funding rates into positive territory and the absence of overleveraged exuberance point to a healthier, more measured rally.
However, the next directional move may depend heavily on the outcome of the Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul. A breakthrough in diplomacy could act as the catalyst needed to push BTC above the $105,000 ceiling, potentially opening the door to new highs.
Investors should also remain attuned to U.S. macroeconomic signals, particularly regarding interest rate policy, inflation, and trade developments, as these will continue to influence risk appetite across global markets.
