The BTC/USD pair has been in a strong uptrend in recent weeks, trading at $104,600—its highest level since January 2025 and substantially above the April low of $74,000. This significant rebound reinforces the prevailing bullish momentum and positions Bitcoin within reach of its all-time high.
In this article, we examine the technical setup and the macroeconomic and on-chain catalysts supporting the bullish case for Bitcoin against the U.S. dollar. Raliplen brokers deliver a thoughtful and comprehensive review of the issue in their publication.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart offers a clear roadmap of Bitcoin’s current trend. The pair bottomed at $74,000, where it formed a classic double-bottom pattern—a bullish reversal formation. The neckline of this structure was established at $88,718, a critical resistance level that Bitcoin successfully breached on April 22, confirming the breakout and supporting the uptrend.
This breakout was further validated by the emergence of a mini golden cross. This technical signal occurs when a shorter-term moving average—in this case, the 50-day moving average (MA)—crosses above a longer-term moving average, such as the 100-day MA. The golden cross is widely regarded as a bullish indicator, highlighting the strengthening momentum in the asset’s price.
Key oscillators are also flashing bullish signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the midpoint of 50, suggesting continued buying pressure, while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is above the signal line and heading higher, both supportive of the current upward move.
Most notably, Bitcoin is slowly forming a cup and handle pattern, a bullish continuation pattern that often leads to significant upside breakouts. This structure consists of a rounded bottom (the “cup”) and a horizontal resistance, followed by a brief consolidation phase (the “handle”). When the handle completes, the price typically breaks out with renewed strength.
The current cup in the BTC/USD pair has a depth of approximately 31%, implying a measured move target of $142,670. This target is calculated by adding the depth of the cup to the upper resistance level. However, traders should monitor the support level at $88,718 closely, as a break below this threshold would invalidate the bullish setup.
Fundamental Catalysts Supporting Bitcoin’s Rally
Beyond technical indicators, several macro and fundamental drivers are contributing to Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory.
Potential Fed Rate Cuts
One of the most influential macro factors is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. The latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) data released on Tuesday showed a continued easing in inflation during April. This trend strengthens the case for a potential rate cut later in the year.
Rate cuts typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, such as Bitcoin, and can spur flows into risk-on assets. Lower interest rates also weaken the U.S. dollar, making BTC/USD more attractive for investors globally.
Institutional Demand via Spot ETFs
A second major tailwind is the persistent demand from institutional investors, particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to recent data, these ETFs have seen net positive inflows for five consecutive days, with more than $2 billion in net inflows added so far in 2025.
This brings the total inflows to over $41.1 billion, reflecting a clear trend of institutional accumulation. As large asset managers and pension funds continue to allocate to Bitcoin through regulated vehicles, the underlying demand base expands, further legitimizing the asset class and reducing volatility over time.
Shrinking Exchange Supply
Another critical metric is the Bitcoin supply on exchanges, which has dropped to its lowest level in over five years. This trend indicates that more Bitcoin is being moved to cold storage or long-term wallets, suggesting that investors are adopting a buy-and-hold strategy rather than preparing to sell.
In economic terms, this creates a supply-demand imbalance. With shrinking available supply and rising institutional demand, the market dynamics favor a continued price appreciation in the medium to long term.
Market Sentiment and Analyst Projections
The broader market sentiment toward Bitcoin remains decisively bullish. Prominent analysts and institutions have issued aggressive price targets, reinforcing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential.
- Ark Invest maintains a bold outlook, suggesting Bitcoin could reach $2.4 million under its high-conviction scenario.
- BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, estimates Bitcoin’s fair value could reach $700,000 based on increasing institutional adoption.
- Standard Chartered offers a more conservative but still impressive projection of $200,000, citing macroeconomic factors and rising demand.
While these forecasts differ in magnitude, they all underscore a consistent bullish bias toward Bitcoin’s future price trajectory.
Conclusion: BTC/USD Bullish Outlook Intact
The BTC/USD pair continues to trade within a strong bullish channel, bolstered by a compelling mix of technical indicators, institutional flows, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. The formation of the cup and handle pattern suggests that a move toward $142,670 is within reach, provided that Bitcoin holds above key support at $88,718.
