The BTC/USD currency pair has been one of the best-performing pairs in the forex and crypto markets in recent weeks. On Monday morning, the pair was trading at 104,000, its highest level since January 31, and nearly 35% above its lowest level this year.
The surge is largely driven by favorable technical patterns, strong institutional demand, and optimistic macroeconomic signals. The emergence of a cup and handle pattern points to further bullish continuation. In the article, Monovex brokers present a detailed analysis of the topic.
Bitcoin Price Boosted by Demand and Supply Dynamics
The sharp recovery in Bitcoin is closely linked to positive supply and demand fundamentals. On the demand side, institutional appetite has surged, evident in the sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
According to recent data, these funds attracted $600 million last week, following $1.8 billion and $3 billion in inflows in the two preceding weeks. This brings the total inflows to over $41.16 billion, reinforcing Bitcoin’s credibility as an institutional-grade asset.
In parallel, companies such as Strategy, MetaPlanet, and Semler Scientific have increased their Bitcoin holdings, signaling growing institutional conviction. Such actions from publicly traded firms serve as a market confidence boost, encouraging further accumulation from both retail and corporate participants.
On the supply side, exchange balances continue to decline, with on-exchange Bitcoin holdings falling to five-year lows. This drop reflects holder conviction and reduced sell-side pressure, contributing to a bullish supply crunch. When investors withdraw assets from centralized exchanges, it often means they intend to hold long term, which removes circulating supply and can drive prices higher.
Macroeconomic Context: US-China Trade Talks Support Risk Sentiment
The BTC/USD pair is also benefiting from improving global risk sentiment, especially after US-China trade negotiations resumed over the weekend. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the talks were progressing constructively, offering a positive outlook for global trade.
If an agreement is reached between the world’s two largest economies, it would help ease market uncertainties, which have weighed on investor sentiment throughout the year. Bitcoin, like other risk assets, tends to benefit in low-uncertainty environments, as capital flows back into higher-yielding opportunities.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Cup and Handle Breakout in Focus
The daily chart presents a clearly defined cup and handle pattern, which typically signals continuation in an uptrend. This pattern formed after the pair bottomed at 74,492 in April and successfully cleared a critical resistance level at 88,770, which served as the neckline of a previous double-bottom pattern.
In technical terms, the cup shape reflects a gradual recovery, while the handle suggests temporary consolidation before a breakout. The pattern aligns with a bullish breakout structure, where momentum pauses briefly before resuming the upward trend.
Further supporting this view is the recent mini golden cross on the chart. The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 100-day EMA, a signal that often precedes continued bullish momentum. These moving averages are closely watched by trend followers and algorithmic trading systems, reinforcing buy-side pressure.
The next resistance level is seen at 108,230, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the cup. A confirmed breakout above this level would suggest that bulls are in control, potentially targeting the psychological resistance zone around 110,000.
If BTC/USD breaches this level, it would likely invite further momentum-driven buying, especially from technical traders looking to capitalize on pattern completions.
Key Levels to Watch
Support:
- 100,000 – Major psychological support; holding above keeps bullish sentiment intact.
- 94,500 – Short-term support at the base of the recent handle formation.
- 88,770 – Key breakout level and former resistance, now acting as strong support.
Resistance:
- 108,230 – Cup rim level; a breakout here confirms bullish continuation.
- 110,000 – Psychological target and potential profit-taking zone.
- 114,300 – Extension target if bullish momentum continues.
Conclusion: Technical and Fundamental Factors Align
The BTC/USD pair’s recent performance reflects a synergistic alignment of technical patterns and fundamental drivers. The ongoing spot ETF inflows, growing institutional accumulation, and a visible supply shortage provide powerful tailwinds for further upside.
Technically, the cup and handle pattern—backed by a golden cross and key breakouts—suggests that this rally is not over. If Bitcoin breaks above the 108,230 resistance, traders should anticipate a move toward the 110,000 level, with potential extensions beyond that if momentum persists.
Traders and investors should watch for volume confirmation, as well as developments in macro news, particularly regarding US-China relations, to validate this bullish outlook. If these catalysts remain favorable, BTC/USD may continue outperforming traditional markets in the near term.
