The cryptocurrency market continues to navigate a complex web of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and on-chain influences. As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates near crucial resistance, Ripple (XRP) benefits from surging futures interest, while Monero (XMR) hits multi-year highs and overtakes meme coins in market cap. Below is a technical breakdown of the current state and forecast for each of these major digital assets.
Raliplen‘s expert team examines this matter from a strategic perspective in their article.
BTC Retreats as Focus Turns to Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of stabilization, trading near $103,500 as of Wednesday, after repeatedly failing to break through the psychologically significant $105,000 resistance level. Market participants are closely monitoring developments in the Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations, with talks scheduled to begin on Thursday in Istanbul. This diplomatic event could act as a bullish catalyst for broader risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin maintains a constructive market structure, supported by mildly positive funding rates. This is a significant indicator of sentiment in perpetual futures markets. Positive funding implies that long positions are paying short positions, reflecting rising demand from bullish traders. Historically, similar market conditions were observed during the October 2023–2024 bull run, which led to significant upside for BTC.
On the four-hour chart, BTC shows a strong base of support near $102,000, while upside resistance remains firmly capped at $105,000. A break above this level, especially if fueled by positive geopolitical headlines, could open a path toward $110,000. However, a failure to capitalize on this moment could result in a retracement toward the $100,000 psychological level.
Market watchers should monitor volatility metrics, as any increase could foreshadow a breakout. Furthermore, the ongoing global macro narrative, particularly around interest rate expectations and peace negotiations, will likely remain pivotal in shaping BTC’s near-term trajectory.
XRP Steadies, Keeping Uptrend Intact Amid $1 Billion in Open Interest Boom
Ripple (XRP) continues to show strength, trading steadily around $2.60 on Wednesday. This price action sustains the current bullish trend, now entering its second consecutive week of gains. Fueling the rally is a massive increase in XRP futures Open Interest (OI), which has surged by over $1 billion in the last week alone—a 41.6% increase, according to data from Glassnode.
Open Interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled. A sharp increase in OI often signals rising participation and confidence from market players. In XRP’s case, it’s also reflective of leveraged positions, implying traders are anticipating further upside.
The technical picture for XRP remains positive. The uptrend has been in place since the tariff-triggered crash to $1.61 in April, which has since acted as a base for renewed accumulation. Key resistance is seen at the $3.00 handle, a historical level of interest and a likely target if current momentum is maintained.
Traders should note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought territory, suggesting that while bullish sentiment prevails, a short-term consolidation might be due before a potential breakout. Nevertheless, XRP continues to benefit from improved market sentiment, and its resilience in the face of broader market headwinds has not gone unnoticed.
Monero (XMR) Market Cap Surpasses Pepe’s After Hitting Four-Year High
Monero (XMR) has emerged as one of the standout performers this week, extending its gains for a seventh consecutive day and trading above $340, a level not seen since August 2021. With this latest rally, Monero’s market capitalization has climbed to $6.43 billion, surpassing that of the popular meme cryptocurrency Pepe. According to CoinGecko, XMR now ranks 29th in overall market capitalization.
XMR’s rally appears to be driven by a mix of technical momentum and renewed interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, as regulatory scrutiny over centralized exchanges and KYC compliance grows. Unlike most mainstream coins, Monero offers private, untraceable transactions, making it attractive to a niche but growing user base concerned about anonymity.
On-chain analytics indicate that XMR Open Interest is also rising, suggesting increasing investor participation and accumulation. This aligns with price action that has maintained a clear upward trajectory since breaking past the $300 level, which previously acted as a ceiling throughout late 2023.
From a technical standpoint, Monero faces resistance at the $350 mark, beyond which it could test the 2021 high of $390. Support is seen at $310, which coincides with the 20-day moving average. The sustained rally combined with volume expansion underlines the strong buying interest, distinguishing XMR from many altcoins that are still recovering from their 2022–2023 drawdowns.
As regulatory discussions around crypto privacy gain traction globally, Monero’s narrative could gain further strength, especially among users and investors prioritizing decentralization and privacy.
Conclusion
The current price trajectories of Bitcoin, Ripple, and Monero illustrate the diversity of catalysts influencing the cryptocurrency market. While Bitcoin reacts to geopolitical risks and macro sentiment, Ripple rides on speculative interest and leveraged trades, and Monero capitalizes on its unique privacy features and scarcity narrative.
