As global markets grapple with rising geopolitical tensions, inflation risks, and a weakening US Dollar, both Gold (XAUUSD) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) have emerged as key assets on investors’ radars.
Currently, gold is consolidating just below the critical $3,500 resistance zone, while Bitcoin is trading within the $105,000–$115,000 range, testing a crucial breakout level that could define its next bullish phase. NordaLueur’s article offers a well-rounded explanation of the topic, thanks to its experienced brokers.
Trade Tensions Spark Demand for Safe-Havens
Renewed friction between the United States and China has escalated after the US President announced steep tariff hikes, doubling levies on steel and aluminium imports from 25% to 50%. The White House accused China of violating its trade agreement, prompting concerns about a broader trade war.
Critical industries like automotive manufacturing now face possible production halts, especially due to restricted access to rare earth magnets, a vital component in electric vehicles and high-tech systems.
These supply chain disruptions and rising input costs are stoking fears of stagflation, a combination of slowing growth and rising inflation. In such an environment, safe-haven assets like gold typically outperform.
As uncertainty builds, gold prices could gain traction, especially if XAUUSD successfully breaks above the $3,500 level, a psychological and technical resistance point. The bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern forming on higher timeframes suggests an upside breakout is increasingly likely.
Bitcoin Seeks Breakout Amid Macro Uncertainty
Meanwhile, Bitcoin also stands to benefit from growing macroeconomic instability. Increasing trade restrictions on semiconductors, AI chips, and tech-related exports, along with China’s delays in rare earth shipments, reflect a deeper and more prolonged economic standoff.
This climate favors decentralised digital assets like Bitcoin, which are not tied to any central authority and can serve as alternative stores of value.
However, BTCUSD must overcome significant technical resistance. The $115,000 level serves as a key breakout point, and price action has repeatedly failed to close above it. A decisive move above $115,000 would likely trigger a new bull phase, potentially propelling Bitcoin toward the $140,000 and even $250,000 levels.
In contrast, failure to breach this level could result in a short-term correction, especially given the historical pattern of double tops, previously seen in 2021 and again in late 2024 to mid-2025.
Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Eyes Major Breakout
A critical metric to watch is the Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio, which currently forms a classic ascending triangle pattern. This pattern has historically preceded major bull market rallies in Bitcoin relative to gold. The current structure marks the fourth triangle of this kind, and the market is approaching the breakout zone.
Should this ratio break above 40, it may signal a parabolic move in Bitcoin, with gold remaining stable or gaining at a slower pace. This divergence could attract capital from traditional commodities into digital assets, reinforcing the case for a bullish continuation in Bitcoin’s macro trend.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Resistance and Volatility
BTC Nears Long-Term Resistance
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is pressing against the $105,000–$115,000 resistance range. A bullish cup pattern is visible, along with a breakout from a descending broadening wedge, both suggesting potential continuation.
A bullish hammer candlestick near the 50-week SMA further strengthens the outlook. However, Bitcoin must close above $115,000 to invalidate the double top pattern and confirm a long-term bullish breakout.
Short-Term Volatility and Wedge Formation
From a daily perspective, Bitcoin is trading inside an ascending broadening wedge, a structure typically characterized by high volatility and larger price swings. Bitcoin reached key milestones, including $73,000 and $105,000, but now faces resistance at the upper boundary near $115,000.
A clear break above this zone could initiate a powerful rally toward $140,000. However, failure to hold above $105,000, a critical support level, could usher in short-term weakness.
Gold Technical Analysis: Poised for Breakout
XAUUSD Trades Near Pivotal Resistance
Gold’s weekly chart shows a textbook ascending broadening wedge, a pattern indicative of increasing volatility followed by strong directional moves. Within this formation, a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern has emerged, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Gold is now consolidating just beneath $3,500, a level that has repeatedly rejected price advances. A break above this key area would likely result in an explosive upside move.
Consolidation Signals Strength
On lower timeframes, gold remains supported within the $3,000–$3,500 range. This consolidation has historically preceded upward moves, suggesting that XAUUSD is coiling for its next leg higher.
Strong fundamentals, including geopolitical instability, rising inflation, and de-dollarisation trends, provide a supportive backdrop. If gold breaks above $3,500, the next targets could lie at $3,750 and potentially $4,000 over the medium term.
Conclusion: Both Gold and Bitcoin Eye Breakouts
As global macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, both gold and Bitcoin stand at technical and psychological inflection points. With gold eyeing a breakout above $3,500 and Bitcoin testing $115,000, the coming weeks could be pivotal for both markets.
