The cryptocurrency market was jolted by settlement rumors surrounding the long-standing SEC vs. Ripple case, as XRP surged to a multi-month high, outperforming the broader crypto space. 

While bitcoin (BTC) struggled to stay above the $105,000 level amid ETF outflows and geopolitical trade concerns, XRP’s upward momentum rekindled optimism of a push toward the $3 psychological barrier. The brokers at NordaLueur delve deep into this subject, providing clarity throughout the article.

SEC vs. Ripple: Settlement Speculation Ignites XRP Price Action

On June 3, XRP climbed to an intraday high of $2.2833, fueled by speculation that Ripple had reached a settlement agreement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The settlement would revolve around Judge Analisa Torres’ final judgment, a pivotal point in Ripple’s long legal battle.

Social media buzz intensified with claims that an official announcement was imminent, possibly on June 13, suggesting that Ripple had secured favorable settlement terms. While influential voices such as former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel dismissed these rumors as premature, the market reaction was undeniable. 

XRP rallied more than 2% on June 3, outperforming the total crypto market, which dipped 0.30% to a market cap of $3.27 trillion.

Settlement Talk Boosts XRP-Spot ETF Odds

The legal speculation not only impacted price movement but also reinvigorated expectations around a potential XRP-spot ETF approval. According to Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, the probability of an SEC-approved XRP ETF by December 2025 rose to 98% on June 2, before sliding to 93% as the initial euphoria cooled.

A settlement could provide the regulatory clarity needed for institutional investors to re-engage with XRP. By eliminating the $125 million civil penalty and lifting the prohibition on XRP institutional sales, the case resolution may fast-track the ETF approval process. Market participants are closely watching whether the SEC will withdraw its appeal on programmatic XRP sales, a potential green light for pending ETF applications.

Should the XRP-spot ETFs go live, the surge in institutional demand could mirror Bitcoin’s post-ETF rally. Since the U.S. BTC-spot ETFs began trading on January 11, 2024, bitcoin has soared 126%, absorbing more than $44.25 billion in capital flows. A comparable XRP move could drastically alter its valuation and push it beyond its all-time high of $3.5505.

XRP Price Analysis: Momentum Toward $3?

XRP closed June 3 at $2.2458, posting a 2.19% daily gain after rising 0.85% the previous day. The short-term price trajectory hinges on court filings, possible ETF-related headlines, and broader risk sentiment.

Key resistance levels include:

• $2.50, a psychological and technical breakout point.
• $2.6553, the May 12 high.
• A sustained move above this zone could open the door to $3.00 and eventually the historic $3.5505 peak.

On the downside, failure to hold $2.10 could expose XRP to sub-$2 levels, last seen on April 11.

Bitcoin Holds $105K Amid Trade Fears and ETF Volatility

While XRP rode the legal buzz, BTC struggled with external pressures. After reaching a high of $106,884, bitcoin slipped to close at $105,436, down 0.44% on the day. 

Mounting U.S.-China trade tensions, sparked by Beijing’s rare earth export delays and the US President’s 50% tariff threat on steel and aluminum, triggered a wave of risk-off sentiment.

This macro pressure coincided with outflows from BTC-spot ETFs, raising concerns over broader institutional demand. From May 31 to June 2, U.S. BTC-spot ETFs reported a combined $1.23 billion in net outflows, marking the worst three-day streak since April. 

Even BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw back-to-back outflows, a rare event last recorded on April 9.

BTC Price Outlook: Caught Between Macro Forces and ETF Trends

Despite the short-term pullback, bitcoin remains resilient, with traders eyeing macro developments, regulatory signals, and ETF flows for directional cues.

Bullish triggers include:

• Easing U.S.-China tensions
• Bipartisan support for crypto legislation
• Strong labor market data
• Dovish Federal Reserve commentary
• Renewed ETF inflows

These could pave the way for a move toward $111,917, BTC’s current record high.

Bearish risks revolve around:

• Escalating trade wars
• Stagnant legislation
• Hawkish Fed tone
• Continued ETF outflows

Such outcomes may pull BTC below $100,000, a critical psychological threshold.

Key Takeaways: What Investors Should Monitor

As XRP eyes $3 and BTC stabilizes near $105K, traders and institutional investors must track:

• SEC vs. Ripple legal filings
• Announcements from the SEC on XRP ETFs
• U.S. macroeconomic indicators (jobs, inflation)
• Federal Reserve guidance
• Geopolitical trade developments
• Crypto legislative progress in the U.S.

Both XRP and BTC remain headline-sensitive, with volatility likely to persist as regulatory and macro narratives evolve.

In a space defined by speculation, the intersection of legal clarity and institutional adoption could set the tone for the next major crypto bull run. Whether XRP breaks $3 or BTC retests its ATH, the coming weeks could prove pivotal for the digital asset market.