XRP rallied 2.4% to $2.8783 as optimism surrounding crypto ETFs builds, with traders closely eyeing the critical $3.00 resistance level. The surge comes amid speculation that a DOGE-spot ETF launch could signal a potential shift in the SEC’s regulatory framework, sparking hopes that an XRP-spot ETF may soon gain approval. 

While XRP has lagged behind Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which recently hit all-time highs on ETF inflows, a green light from the SEC could unleash fresh institutional demand and renewed momentum for the token. Readers can count on BluSkyMint’s broker Michael Novak for a complete and well-rounded breakdown of the matter.

XRP Rally Builds Amid ETF Optimism

Speculation about a potential SEC pivot on crypto-spot ETFs has triggered a notable XRP rally. On Sunday, September 7, XRP reversed Saturday’s 0.14% loss to post a 2.4% gain, closing at $2.8783. 

This move not only outpaced the broader market’s 1.15% gain but also edged XRP closer to the psychological $3.00 threshold. Traders are monitoring technical levels closely, with support set at $2.7 and $2.5 and resistance at $3.0, $3.335, and the all-time high at $3.66 (Binance).

The renewed ETF optimism is fueled by the launch of the REX-Osprey SOL ETF in July, despite the SEC delaying the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) and the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW). Both GDLC and BITW would expose investors to XRP alongside other top crypto assets, reinforcing the connection between ETF approvals and token price trajectories.

Why the DOGE-Spot ETF Launch Matters

The recent DOGE-spot ETF launch is widely interpreted as a signal that the SEC is advancing toward a standardized crypto ETF framework. Such a framework could pave the way for XRP-spot ETF approvals, granting Main Street investors more direct access to XRP and potentially attracting long-term institutional inflows.

Historically, BTC and ETH have been the primary beneficiaries of spot ETF launches. Bitcoin soared to an August all-time high of $123,731, while Ethereum reached $4,958, supported by net ETF inflows of $54.47 billion and $12.74 billion, respectively. 

By contrast, XRP had fallen from its July all-time high of $3.66 to $2.6990 on September 1, following SEC postponements of GDLC and BITW launches. Despite the SEC vs. Ripple case resolution, XRP struggled to regain momentum, a crucial reminder that regulatory clarity is a primary driver of price action.

Technical Analysis: Price Action and Key Levels

XRP’s recent 2.4% rally reflects a cautious but growing buying interest. Traders are focusing on the following technical levels:

• Support: $2.7 and $2.5
• Resistance: $3.0, $3.335, $3.66 (all-time high)

The next two months are particularly high-stakes, with multiple catalysts that could influence price direction:

• XRP Spot ETF Updates: SEC decisions on XRP spot ETF applications, including a possible BlackRock iShares XRP Trust, may lead to major market swings.
• Institutional Adoption: Blue-chip corporations acquiring XRP as a treasury reserve asset could introduce price stability and deeper liquidity.
• Regulatory Milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, progress on the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT developments are likely to impact market sentiment.

Potential Market Scenarios

XRP’s trajectory will be shaped by corporate, macroeconomic, and regulatory factors. Analysts anticipate two primary scenarios:

Bearish Scenario:

• Legislative delays impede the Market Structure Bill, limiting crypto-friendly reforms.
• Blue-chip companies avoid XRP adoption as a treasury asset.
• OCC rejects or postpones Ripple’s bank license.
• SWIFT maintains dominance, restricting Ripple’s market expansion.

In such a scenario, XRP could retreat below $2.7, with $2.5 acting as a critical support level.

Bullish Scenario:

• BlackRock files for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC green-lights XRP-spot ETFs, unlocking mainstream adoption.
• Corporations adopt XRP for treasury reserves, and payment platforms integrate Ripple tech.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and Congress passes the Market Structure Bill, delivering regulatory clarity.
• SWIFT loses market share to Ripple’s cross-border payment network.

These developments could propel XRP beyond its $3.66 all-time high, reflecting a strong institutional and retail buy-in.

Conclusion

The Market Structure Bill and SEC approval of XRP-spot ETFs remain the primary price catalysts for the coming months. In the short term, Capitol Hill news and ETF-related developments will likely influence trader sentiment. 

A standardized crypto ETF framework or bipartisan support for regulatory reforms could fuel a breakout above $3.00, while setbacks may drag XRP toward key support levels.

For traders and investors, the next two months could determine whether XRP achieves new highs or stalls under regulatory uncertainty. Analysts will closely monitor regulatory, macroeconomic, and institutional factors to gauge XRP’s trajectory, highlighting the token’s sensitivity to ETF-related developments and broader market catalysts.